Your Guide To The 2019 NCAA Men’s Tournament: Midwest region

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Best seed prognosis: On paper, the Midwest seems to be the most open of the four areas, but we still provide No. 1 North Carolina the greatest chances, with a 35 percent probability of reaching the Final Four and an 18 percent probability of appearing in the national championship match. Those odds are 8 percentage points lower than any other No. 1 team in the area, however, and for good reason: North Carolina’s offense is dependent on turning every play right into a quick break. The Tar Heels struggle to get into the free-throw line and give up a slew of shots along the perimeter, and that, at a slowed-down, half-court matchup, can be quite problematic.
After getting chased by Duke to start the summer, No. 2 Kentucky has caught fire in recent months while discovering balance on the two ends of the ground and mostly abstaining from the 3-point line. No. 3 Houston, meanwhile, is currently in the middle of its best season because Clyde Drexler and Hakeem Olajuwon were revolutionizing college basketball, and they boast a defense which ranks among the very best along and inside the perimeter.
Sneaky Final Four pick: No. 5 Auburn. Whenever the Tigers steamrolled Tennessee 84-64 in Sunday’s SEC title game, it likely got the attention of a good deal of bracket-pickers. That was not a one off — Auburn also conquer Tennessee eight days before, a portion of a string of eight straight wins for the Tigers, and 10 in their last 11 games. Having an explosive offense (No. 8 in KenPom efficiency) that acquired more of its points out of downtown compared to any other group in the NCAA field, Auburn can heat up in a hurry. We provide the Tigers almost a coin-flip’s likelihood of making the Sweet 16 — and a very strong 37 percent likelihood of beating top-seeded North Carolina if the Tar Heels are waiting for Auburn there. The only kryptonite might be a hypothetical regional-final matchup with No. 2 seed Kentucky, which beat the Tigers from 27 in late February to sweep their season collection.
Don’t bet : No. 4 Kansas. The Jayhawks went into the season ranked No. 1 in the AP’s preseason poll, and they appeared to validate the choice by starting the season 10-0. But a 15-9 record (plus some key injuries) since then have cast doubt on Kansas’s NCAA Tournament possible. This is a well-balanced team, but to state it does not shoot well from the exterior is a understatement — watch KU’s 3-for-18 functionality from deep in Saturday’s Big 12 ouster from Iowa State. Add a negative draw that sets them on an expected second-round collision course with Auburn (see above), and also we give the Jayhawks only an 8% chance of making out of the Midwest with their championship hopes undamaged.
Cinderella watch: No. 11 Ohio State. If a Big Ten team which has made 11 Final Fours can be a Cinderella, then you’re looking at it in these Buckeyes. (Hey, the committee’s rising trend to con underwhelming power-conference schools this way really messes with the definition.) OSU went only 18-13 throughout the regular season, was defeated its second Big Ten tournament game and contains almost twice as many losses as wins since New Year’s. Why are the Buckeyes a potential Cinderella? Despite the seed, this is still a dangerous group, one which ranks 27th from Pomeroy’s adjusted defensive evaluations and contains star forward Kaleb Wesson back from suspension. So maybe they’ll provide Big 12 champ Iowa State trouble. But this tells you something about the other prospective Cinderellas within this area: Seton Hall obtained a very tough first-round matchup with underseeded Wofford; none of those other low seeds here are world-beaters. That leaves the Buckeyes, a team which did all it could to perform its way out of this tournament, but has some mad potential no matter.
Player to watch: UNC, Cameron Johnson On a group that does not hoist a ton of shots from the perimeter, Johnson is as lethal as they are come. Following an injury-riddled campaign in which he barely made more than one third of his appearances from beyond the arc, the graduate student is canning 46.5 percent of his attempts, which ranks within the top 25 nationally.
Johnson has thrived in North Carolina’s every-possession-is-a-transition-opportunity plot this year. He’s blossomed into one of the greatest scorers in the ACC, standing between the 85th and 100th percentiles in scoring efficacy in transitionoff screens and on spot-ups.
Johnson has elevated his game in conference play, boasting the ACC’s top offensive rating (132.5) and accurate shooting percentage (64.6). Suddenly, a participant who was not seen as a guaranteed professional now projects to be a second-round pick.
Likeliest first-round upsets: No. 9 Washington over No. 8 Utah State (49 percent); No. 10 Seton Hall over No. 7 Wofford (37 percent); No. 11 Ohio State over No. 6 Iowa State (33 percent)
Check out our latest March Madness predictions.
CORRECTION (March 18, 2019, 3:10 p.m.): A former version of this story misstated the amount of Sweet 16s created by Villanova in recent seasons. Though the Wildcats have reached the NCAA Tournament’s”third round” in four of their previous five seasons, that round was the Round of 32 until 2016 because of NCAA naming conventions.

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